Kiltova

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Versio hetkellä 6. joulukuuta 2020 kello 14.24 – tehnyt Jouni (keskustelu | muokkaukset) (→‎PAQ2018)
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Kiltova on Syken koordinoima projekti, joka tuottaa toiminnallisuuksia ilmastotoimenpiteiden vaikutusten arviointiin. Päähuomio on muissa kuin suorissa ilmastovaikutuksissa, esimerkiksi ilmansaasteissa, talousvaikutuksissa jne.

Malleja

PAQ2018

Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [1]

User inputs:

  • Total number of citizens in region of interest
  • Age distribution by one-year age groups
  • Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3
    • PM10
    • PM2.5
    • NO2
    • EC
Olennaiset laskentafunktiot
!Variable Equation
Population at risk Standard population age group / total standard population * total target population
Magnitude total Burden of Disease Population * incidence or prevalence / scaling factor
Attributable cases/burden of disease BoD*(RR-1)/RR
RR ∆ exposure exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff))
YLD (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit
Costs (attributable cases or BoD) * cost per unit (€)
Percentage decline FEV1 decline fev1/10*(exposure-cutoff)
Total YLD / costs. Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1
YLL attributable cases * disability weight (1) * duration (10.6 a)
Total DALYs / health damage in € YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2
Decline in life expectancy (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) (MIKSI EI JAETA 10 jos EC?)
Olennaiset parametrit
Response Age Exposure agent ERF Scaling factor Incidence or prevalence Explanation and default value incidence or prevalence Source incidence or prevalence ERF (per 10 µg/m3) Disability weight Duration YLD per unit Source Costs per unit (€) Source
Morbidity
Annual number of days with bronchitis in children 6-12 a PM10 RR 100000/14 18600 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 18600) PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012) 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190)[1][2] 0.22500 0.00274 0.00062 WHO 2017a 49 Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults 18+ a PM10 RR 100000 390 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 390) HRAPIE: SAPALDIA 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189)[1][2] 0.09900 10.00000 0.99000 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 62712
Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children 5-19 a PM10 RR 100000/0.17/365.25 4900 … per 100000 (Default West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500 HRAPIE 1.028 (1.006 - 1.051)[1][2] 0.07000 0.00274 0.00019 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 49
Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 2416 … per 100000 (Default Europe) WHO 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166)[1][2] 0.58800 0.03800 0.02230 Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017 2574
Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 1407 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 1848) WHO 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402)[1][2] 0.40800 0.03800 0.01550 Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017 2574
Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days) all ages PM2.5 RR 1 19 … days per person per year (Default Europe: 19) HRAPIE: Ostro et al., 1989 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)[1][2]
Work days lost, working age population age 20-65 a PM2.5 RR 1 12 … days per worker per year (No Default Value) WHO 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530)[1][2] 0.09900 0.00274 0.00027 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 152
Lung cancer age 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 64 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 49) WHO 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400)[3] 0.45100 1.00000 0.45100 WHO 2017a
Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term) 0 a PM2.5 RR 100000 7100 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 6700) WHO 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)[3]
Decreased lung function (FEV1) in percentage (per 10 µg/m³) 6-12 a PM2.5 linear 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2.5 does not apply 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)[3]
Mortality
Post-neonatal mortality 1-12 months = age 0 a*11/12 PM10 RR 100000 300 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 300) WHO 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070)[1][2] 1 80 80 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 67500 Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10 30+ a PM10 RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)[4] 1 10.6 10.6 De Leeuw & Horálek 2016/5
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)[4]
YLL (premature deaths) due to NO2 30+ a NO2 RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)[5]
YLL (premature deaths) due to EC 30+ a EC RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)[4]
Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days Decline in life expectancy (d)
Due to PM10 30+ a PM10 linear DR 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)[4] 120 (14 - 223)
Due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 linear DR 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)[4] 210 (140 - 281)
Due to NO2 30+ a NO2 linear DR 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)[5] 69 (35 - 103)
Due to EC 30+ a EC linear DR 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)[4] 206 (167 - 246)

Viitteet

  1. ↑ 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 HRAPIE
  2. ↑ 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 WHO 2013
  3. ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 Van der Zee et al., 2016
  4. ↑ 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 Hoek et al., 2013
  5. ↑ 5,0 5,1 Atkinson et al., 2017
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