Kiltova
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Kiltova on Syken koordinoima projekti, joka tuottaa toiminnallisuuksia ilmastotoimenpiteiden vaikutusten arviointiin. Päähuomio on muissa kuin suorissa ilmastovaikutuksissa, esimerkiksi ilmansaasteissa, talousvaikutuksissa jne.
Malleja
PAQ2018
Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [1]
User inputs:
- Total number of citizens in region of interest
- Age distribution by one-year age groups
- Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3
- PM10
- PM2.5
- NO2
- EC
| !Variable | Equation |
|---|---|
| Population at risk | Standard population age group / total standard population * total target population |
| Magnitude total Burden of Disease | Population * incidence or prevalence / scaling factor |
| Attributable cases/burden of disease | BoD*(RR-1)/RR |
| RR ∆ PM10 scenario 1 | exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff)) |
| YLD | (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit |
| Costs | (attributable cases or BoD) * cost per unit (€) |
| Percentage decline FEV1 | decline fev1/10*(exposure-cutoff) |
| Total YLD / costs. | Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1 |
| Total DALYs / health damage in € | YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2 |
| Morbidity | Heath risk factor | Dose-response | Scaling factor | Incidence/prevalence | Explanation and default value incidence/prevalence | Source incidence/prevalence | RR PM10/PM2.5 (per 10 µg/m3) | Lower | Upper | Disability weight | Duration | YLD per unit | Source | Costs per unit (€) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual number of days with bronchitis in children (age 6-12 years) | PM10 | loglinear DR | 100000/14 | 18600 | … per 100000 (Default Europe: 18600) | PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012) | 1.080 | 0.980 | 1.190 | 0.22500 | 0.00274 | 0.00062 | WHO 2017a | 49 | Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits. |
| Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults (age 18+ years) | PM10 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 390 | … per 100000 (Default Europe: 390) | HRAPIE: SAPALDIA | 1.117 | 1.040 | 1.189 | 0.09900 | 10.00000 | 0.99000 | Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 | 62712 | |
| Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children (age 5-19 years) | PM10 | loglinear DR | 100000/0.17/365.25 | 4900 | … per 100000 (Default West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500 | HRAPIE | 1.028 | 1.006 | 1.051 | 0.07000 | 0.00274 | 0.00019 | Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 | 49 | |
| Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases (all ages) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 2416 | … per 100000 (Default Europe) | WHO | 1.0091 | 1.0017 | 1.0166 | 0.58800 | 0.03800 | 0.02230 | Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017 | 2574 | |
| Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases (all ages) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 1407 | … per 100000 (Default Europe: 1848) | WHO | 1.0190 | 0.9982 | 1.0402 | 0.40800 | 0.03800 | 0.01550 | Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017 | 2574 | |
| Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days) (all ages) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 1 | 19 | … days per person per year (Default Europe: 19) | HRAPIE: Ostro et al., 1989 | 1.0470 | 1.0420 | 1.0530 | ||||||
| Work days lost, working age population (age 20-65 years) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 1 | 12 | … days per worker per year (No Default Value) | WHO | 1.0460 | 1.0390 | 1.0530 | 0.09900 | 0.00274 | 0.00027 | Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 | 152 | |
| Lung cancer (age 30+ years) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 64 | … per 100000 (Default Europe: 49) | WHO | 1.0900 | 1.0400 | 1.1400 | 0.45100 | 1.00000 | 0.45100 | WHO 2017a | ||
| Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term) (age 0 years) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 7100 | … per 100000 (Default Europe: 6700) | WHO | 1.1900 | 1.0000 | 1.4200 | ||||||
| Decline FEV1 PM2,5 (per 10 µg/m³) | Lower | Upper | |||||||||||||
| Decreased lung function (FEV1) (age 6-12 years) in percentage. Linear DR | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2,5 | does not apply | 1.5% | -0.3% | 3.2% | ||||||||
| Mortality | loglinear DR | Incidence/prevalence | Explanation and default value incidence/prevalence | Source incidence/prevalence | |||||||||||
| Post-neonatal mortality (age 1-12 months = age 0 years *11/12) | PM10 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 300 | … per 100000 (Default Europe: 300) | WHO | 1.040 | 1.020 | 1.070 | 1 | 80 | 80 | Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 | 67500 | Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits. |
| Premature deaths due to PM10 (age 30+ years) | PM10 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 1363.83537959465 | … per 100000 | attributable cases * 10.6 | 1.035 | 1.004 | 1.066 | 1 | 10.6 | 10.6 | De Leeuw & Horálek 2016/5 | ||
| Premature deaths due to PM2.5 (age 30+ years) | PM2.5 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 1363.83537959465 | … per 100000 | attributable cases * 10.6 | 1.062 | 1.041 | 1.084 | ||||||
| Premature deaths due to NO2 (age 30+ years) | NO2 | loglinear DR | 100000 | 1363.83537959465 | … per 100000 | attributable cases * 10.6 | 1.020 | 1.010 | 1.030 | ||||||
| Premature deaths due to EC (age 30+ years) | EC | loglinear DR | 100000 | 1363.83537959465 | … per 100000 | attributable cases * 10.6 | 1.061 | 1.049 | 1.073 | ||||||
| Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) (age 30+ years) in days | Decline in life expectancy in days | Lower | Upper | ||||||||||||
| Due to PM10 (age 30+ years) | PM10 | linear DR | (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) | 1.035 | 1.004 | 1.066 | 120 | 14 | 223 | Hoek et al., 2013 | |||||
| Due to PM2,5 (age 30+ years) | PM2,5 | linear DR | (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) | 1.062 | 1.041 | 1.084 | 210 | 140 | 281 | Hoek et al., 2013 | |||||
| Due to NO2 (age 30+ years) | NO2 | linear DR | (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) | 1.020 | 1.010 | 1.030 | 69 | 35 | 103 | Atkinson et al., 2018 | |||||
| Due to EC (age 30+ years) | EC | linear DR | (exposure – cutoff)* decline in life exposure (d) MIKSI EI JAETA 10 KUTEN MUUT? | 1.061 | 1.049 | 1.073 | 206 | 167 | 246 | Hoek et al., 2013 |