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=== PAQ2018 ===
=== PAQ2018 ===


Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/air-quality/new-tool-measuring-benefits-generated-terms-impact-citizens-health-and-living]
Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/air-quality/new-tool-measuring-benefits-generated-terms-impact-citizens-health-and-living]. EU-komission ilmansaasteiden yleissivu on https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/air-quality. Taustatietoja mallista ja tarvittavia lähtötietoja löytyy periaatteessa osoitteesta https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/hfa-explorer/ mutta ainakin se viimeksi kokeiltaessa ei toiminut.


User inputs:
User inputs:
* Total number of citizens in region of interest
* Total number of citizens in region of interest
* Age distribution by one-year age groups
* Age distribution by one-year age groups
* Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3
* Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3. The assumed cut-off values (i.e. no-effect thresholds) are shown in parenthesis.
** PM10  
** PM10 (3.9)
** PM2.5
** PM2.5 (2.5)
** NO2
** NO2 (5.0)
** EC
** EC (0.3)


{| {{prettytable}}
{| {{prettytable}}
Rivi 53: Rivi 53:
! Scaling factor
! Scaling factor
! Incidence or prevalence
! Incidence or prevalence
! Explanation and default value incidence or prevalence
! Default value incidence or prevalence
! Source incidence or prevalence
! ERF (per 10 µg/m3)
! ERF (per 10 µg/m3)
! Disability weight
! Disability weight
! Duration
! Duration
! YLD per unit
! YLD per unit
! Source
! Costs per unit (€)
! Costs per unit (€)
! Source
|----
|----
| colspan="15"| Morbidity
| colspan="12| Morbidity
|----
|----
| Annual number of days with bronchitis in children
| Annual number of days with bronchitis in children
Rivi 71: Rivi 68:
| 100000/14
| 100000/14
| 18600
| 18600
| …  per 100000 (Default Europe: 18600)
| Europe: 18600<ref name="hoek2012">PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012)</ref>
| PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012)
| 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190)<ref name="hrapie">HRAPIE</ref><ref name="who2013">WHO 2013</ref>
| 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190)<ref name="hrapie">HRAPIE</ref><ref name="who2013">WHO 2013</ref>
| 0.22500
| 0.22500
| 0.00274
| 0.00274
| 0.00062
| 0.00062<ref name="who2017">WHO 2017a</ref>
| WHO 2017a
| 49<ref name="holland2014">Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.</ref>
| 49
| Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
|----
|----
| Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults  
| Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults  
Rivi 87: Rivi 81:
| 100000
| 100000
| 390
| 390
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 390)
| Europe: 390<ref name="sapaldia">HRAPIE: SAPALDIA</ref>
| HRAPIE: SAPALDIA
| 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 0.09900
| 0.09900
| 10.00000
| 10.00000
| 0.99000
| 0.99000<ref name="heimtsa2011">Heimtsa &amp; Intarese 2011</ref>
| Heimtsa &amp; Intarese 2011
| 62712<ref name="holland2014"/>
| 62712
|
|----
|----
| Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children
| Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children
Rivi 103: Rivi 94:
| 100000/0.17/365.25
| 100000/0.17/365.25
| 4900
| 4900
| … per 100000 (Default West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500
| West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500<ref name="hrapie"/>
| HRAPIE
| 1.028 (1.006 -  1.051)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.028 (1.006 -  1.051)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 0.07000
| 0.07000
| 0.00274
| 0.00274
| 0.00019
| 0.00019<ref name="heimtsa2011"/>
| Heimtsa &amp; Intarese 2011
| 49<ref name="holland2014"/>
| 49
|
|----
|----
| Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases
| Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases
Rivi 119: Rivi 107:
| 100000
| 100000
| 2416
| 2416
| … per 100000 (Default Europe)
| Europe<ref name="who">WHO</ref>
| WHO
| 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 0.58800
| 0.58800
| 0.03800
| 0.03800
| 0.02230
| 0.02230<ref name="bachmann2017">Bachmann &amp; van der Kamp 2017</ref>
| Bachmann &amp; van der Kamp 2017
| 2574<ref name="holland2014"/>
| 2574
|
|----
|----
| Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases
| Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases
Rivi 135: Rivi 120:
| 100000
| 100000
| 1407
| 1407
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 1848)
| Europe: 1848<ref name="who"/>
| WHO
| 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 0.40800
| 0.40800
| 0.03800
| 0.03800
| 0.01550
| 0.01550<ref name="bachmann2017"/>
| Bachmann &amp; van der Kamp 2017
| 2574<ref name="holland2014"/>
| 2574
|
|----
|----
| Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days)
| Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days per person per year)
| all ages
| all ages
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
Rivi 151: Rivi 133:
| 1
| 1
| 19
| 19
| … days per person per year (Default Europe: 19)
| Europe: 19<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="ostro1989">Ostro et al., 1989</ref>
| HRAPIE: Ostro et al., 1989
| 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 161: Rivi 140:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Work days lost, working age population
| Work days lost per worker per year, working age population
| age 20-65 a
| age 20-65 a
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
Rivi 167: Rivi 146:
| 1
| 1
| 12
| 12
| … days per worker per year (No Default Value)
| No Default Value<ref name="who"/>
| WHO
| 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 0.09900
| 0.09900
| 0.00274
| 0.00274
| 0.00027
| 0.00027<ref name="heimtsa2011"/>
| Heimtsa &amp; Intarese 2011
| 152<ref name="holland2014"/>
| 152
|
|----
|----
| Lung cancer
| Lung cancer
Rivi 183: Rivi 159:
| 100000
| 100000
| 64
| 64
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 49)
| Europe: 49<ref name="who"/>
| WHO
| 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400)<ref name="zee2016">Van der Zee et al., 2016</ref>
| 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400)<ref name="zee2016">Van der Zee et al., 2016</ref>
| 0.45100
| 0.45100
| 1.00000
| 1.00000
| 0.45100
| 0.45100<ref name="who2017"/>
| WHO 2017a
|
|  
|  
|----
|----
Rivi 199: Rivi 172:
| 100000
| 100000
| 7100
| 7100
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 6700)
| Europe: 6700<ref name="who"/>
| WHO
| 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)<ref name="zee2016"/>
| 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)<ref name="zee2016"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 216: Rivi 186:
|  
|  
| 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2.5
| 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2.5
| does not apply
| 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)<ref name="zee2016"/>
| 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)<ref name="zee2016"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 225: Rivi 192:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| colspan="15!| Mortality
| colspan="12"| Mortality
|----
|----
| Post-neonatal mortality
| Post-neonatal mortality
Rivi 233: Rivi 200:
| 100000
| 100000
| 300
| 300
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 300)
| Europe: 300<ref name="who"/>
| WHO
| 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070)<ref name="hrapie"/><ref name="who2013"/>
| 1
| 1
| 80
| 80
| 80
| 80<ref name="heimtsa2011"/>
| Heimtsa &amp; Intarese 2011
| 67500<ref name="holland2014"/>
| 67500
| Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
|----
|----
| YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10
| YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10
Rivi 248: Rivi 212:
| RR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.8<ref name="finland">Value for Finland</ref>
| … per 100000
|  
|  
| 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)<ref name="hoek2013">Hoek et al., 2013</ref>
| 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)<ref name="hoek2013">Hoek et al., 2013</ref>
| 1
| 1
| 10.6
| 10.6
| 10.6
| 10.6<ref name="leeuw2016">De Leeuw &amp; Horálek 2016/5</ref>
| De Leeuw &amp; Horálek 2016/5
|
|  
|  
|----
|----
Rivi 264: Rivi 225:
| RR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.8<ref name="finland">Value for Finland</ref>
| … per 100000
|  
|  
| 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
| 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 280: Rivi 238:
| RR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.8<ref name="finland">Value for Finland</ref>
| … per 100000
|  
|  
| 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)<ref name="atkinson2018">Atkinson et al., 2017</ref>
| 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)<ref name="atkinson2018">Atkinson et al., 2017</ref>
|
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 296: Rivi 251:
| RR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.8<ref name="finland">Value for Finland</ref>
| … per 100000
|  
|  
| 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
| 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 307: Rivi 259:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| colspan="11"| Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days
| colspan="10"| Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days
| Decline in life expectancy (d)
| Decline in life expectancy (d)
|
|
|  
|  
|----
|----
Rivi 316: Rivi 266:
| 30+ a
| 30+ a
| PM10
| PM10
| linear DR
| linear ERF
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 324: Rivi 273:
|  
|  
|  
|  
| 120 (14 - 223)
| 120 (14 - 223)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|----
|----
Rivi 332: Rivi 279:
| 30+ a
| 30+ a
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| linear DR
| linear ERF
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 340: Rivi 286:
|  
|  
|  
|  
| 210 (140 - 281)
| 210 (140 - 281)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|----
|----
Rivi 348: Rivi 292:
| 30+ a
| 30+ a
| NO2
| NO2
| linear DR
| linear ERF
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 356: Rivi 299:
|  
|  
|  
|  
| 69 (35 - 103)
| 69 (35 - 103)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|----
|----
Rivi 364: Rivi 305:
| 30+ a
| 30+ a
| EC
| EC
| linear DR
| linear ERF
|
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 372: Rivi 312:
|  
|  
|  
|  
| 206 (167 - 246)
| 206 (167 - 246)<ref name="hoek2013"/>
|
|
|  
|  
|----
|----

Versio 7. joulukuuta 2020 kello 04.38




Kiltova on Syken koordinoima projekti, joka tuottaa toiminnallisuuksia ilmastotoimenpiteiden vaikutusten arviointiin. Päähuomio on muissa kuin suorissa ilmastovaikutuksissa, esimerkiksi ilmansaasteissa, talousvaikutuksissa jne.

Malleja

PAQ2018

Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [1]. EU-komission ilmansaasteiden yleissivu on https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/air-quality. Taustatietoja mallista ja tarvittavia lähtötietoja löytyy periaatteessa osoitteesta https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/hfa-explorer/ mutta ainakin se viimeksi kokeiltaessa ei toiminut.

User inputs:

  • Total number of citizens in region of interest
  • Age distribution by one-year age groups
  • Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3. The assumed cut-off values (i.e. no-effect thresholds) are shown in parenthesis.
    • PM10 (3.9)
    • PM2.5 (2.5)
    • NO2 (5.0)
    • EC (0.3)
Olennaiset laskentafunktiot
!Variable Equation
Population at risk Standard population age group / total standard population * total target population
Magnitude total Burden of Disease Population * incidence or prevalence / scaling factor
Attributable cases/burden of disease BoD*(RR-1)/RR
RR ∆ exposure exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff))
YLD (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit
Costs (attributable cases or BoD) * cost per unit (€)
Percentage decline FEV1 decline fev1/10*(exposure-cutoff)
Total YLD / costs. Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1
YLL attributable cases * disability weight (1) * duration (10.6 a)
Total DALYs / health damage in € YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2
Decline in life expectancy (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) (MIKSI EI JAETA 10 jos EC?)
Olennaiset parametrit
Response Age Exposure agent ERF Scaling factor Incidence or prevalence Default value incidence or prevalence ERF (per 10 µg/m3) Disability weight Duration YLD per unit Costs per unit (€)
Morbidity
Annual number of days with bronchitis in children 6-12 a PM10 RR 100000/14 18600 Europe: 18600[1] 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190)[2][3] 0.22500 0.00274 0.00062[4] 49[5]
Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults 18+ a PM10 RR 100000 390 Europe: 390[6] 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189)[2][3] 0.09900 10.00000 0.99000[7] 62712[5]
Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children 5-19 a PM10 RR 100000/0.17/365.25 4900 West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500[2] 1.028 (1.006 - 1.051)[2][3] 0.07000 0.00274 0.00019[7] 49[5]
Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 2416 Europe[8] 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166)[2][3] 0.58800 0.03800 0.02230[9] 2574[5]
Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 1407 Europe: 1848[8] 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402)[2][3] 0.40800 0.03800 0.01550[9] 2574[5]
Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days per person per year) all ages PM2.5 RR 1 19 Europe: 19[2][10] 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)[2][3]
Work days lost per worker per year, working age population age 20-65 a PM2.5 RR 1 12 No Default Value[8] 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530)[2][3] 0.09900 0.00274 0.00027[7] 152[5]
Lung cancer age 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 64 Europe: 49[8] 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400)[11] 0.45100 1.00000 0.45100[4]
Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term) 0 a PM2.5 RR 100000 7100 Europe: 6700[8] 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)[11]
Decreased lung function (FEV1) in percentage (per 10 µg/m³) 6-12 a PM2.5 linear 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2.5 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)[11]
Mortality
Post-neonatal mortality 1-12 months = age 0 a*11/12 PM10 RR 100000 300 Europe: 300[8] 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070)[2][3] 1 80 80[7] 67500[5]
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10 30+ a PM10 RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)[13] 1 10.6 10.6[14]
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)[13]
YLL (premature deaths) due to NO2 30+ a NO2 RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)[15]
YLL (premature deaths) due to EC 30+ a EC RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)[13]
Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days Decline in life expectancy (d)
Due to PM10 30+ a PM10 linear ERF 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)[13] 120 (14 - 223)[13]
Due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 linear ERF 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)[13] 210 (140 - 281)[13]
Due to NO2 30+ a NO2 linear ERF 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)[15] 69 (35 - 103)[13]
Due to EC 30+ a EC linear ERF 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)[13] 206 (167 - 246)[13]

Viitteet

  1. ↑ PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012)
  2. ↑ 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 2,8 2,9 HRAPIE
  3. ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 WHO 2013
  4. ↑ 4,0 4,1 WHO 2017a
  5. ↑ 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
  6. ↑ HRAPIE: SAPALDIA
  7. ↑ 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011
  8. ↑ 8,0 8,1 8,2 8,3 8,4 8,5 WHO
  9. ↑ 9,0 9,1 Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017
  10. ↑ Ostro et al., 1989
  11. ↑ 11,0 11,1 11,2 Van der Zee et al., 2016
  12. ↑ 12,0 12,1 12,2 12,3 Value for Finland
  13. ↑ 13,0 13,1 13,2 13,3 13,4 13,5 13,6 13,7 13,8 13,9 Hoek et al., 2013
  14. ↑ De Leeuw & Horálek 2016/5
  15. ↑ 15,0 15,1 Atkinson et al., 2017
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