Ero sivun ”Kiltova” versioiden välillä

Opasnet Suomista
Siirry navigaatioon Siirry hakuun
(ensimmäinen luonnos excelin pohjalta)
 
Rivi 28: Rivi 28:
|| Attributable cases/burden of disease|| BoD*(RR-1)/RR
|| Attributable cases/burden of disease|| BoD*(RR-1)/RR
|----
|----
|| RR ∆ PM10 scenario 1|| exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff))
|| RR ∆ exposure|| exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff))
|----
|----
|| YLD|| (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit
|| YLD|| (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit
Rivi 37: Rivi 37:
|----
|----
|| Total YLD / costs.|| Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1
|| Total YLD / costs.|| Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1
|----
|| YLL || attributable cases * disability weight (1) * duration (10.6 a)
|----
|----
|| Total DALYs / health damage in €|| YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2
|| Total DALYs / health damage in €|| YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2
|----
|----
| Decline in life expectancy || (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) (MIKSI EI JAETA 10  jos EC?)
|}
|}


{| {{prettytable}}
{| {{prettytable}}
|+'''Olennaiset parametrit
|+'''Olennaiset parametrit
! Morbidity
! Response
! Heath risk factor
! Age
! Dose-response
! Exposure agent
! ERF
! Scaling factor
! Scaling factor
! Incidence/prevalence
! Incidence or prevalence
! Explanation and default value incidence/prevalence
! Explanation and default value incidenceor prevalence
! Source incidence/prevalence
! Source incidence or prevalence
! RR PM10/PM2.5 (per 10 µg/m3)
! ERF (per 10 µg/m3)
! Lower
! Upper
! Disability weight
! Disability weight
! Duration
! Duration
Rivi 61: Rivi 63:
! Source
! Source
|----
|----
| Annual number of days with bronchitis in children (age 6-12 years)
| colspan="15"| Morbidity
|----
| Annual number of days with bronchitis in children
| 6-12 a
| PM10
| PM10
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000/14
| 100000/14
| 18600
| 18600
| …  per 100000 (Default Europe: 18600)
| …  per 100000 (Default Europe: 18600)
| PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012)
| PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012)
| 1.080
| 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190)
| 0.980
| 1.190
| 0.22500
| 0.22500
| 0.00274
| 0.00274
Rivi 78: Rivi 81:
| Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
| Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
|----
|----
| Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults (age 18+ years)
| Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults  
| 18+ a
| PM10
| PM10
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 390
| 390
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 390)
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 390)
| HRAPIE: SAPALDIA
| HRAPIE: SAPALDIA
| 1.117
| 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189)
| 1.040
| 1.189
| 0.09900
| 0.09900
| 10.00000
| 10.00000
Rivi 95: Rivi 97:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children (age 5-19 years)
| Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children
| 5-19 a
| PM10
| PM10
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000/0.17/365.25
| 100000/0.17/365.25
| 4900
| 4900
| … per 100000 (Default West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500
| … per 100000 (Default West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500
| HRAPIE
| HRAPIE
| 1.028
| 1.028 (1.006 -  1.051)
| 1.006
| 1.051
| 0.07000
| 0.07000
| 0.00274
| 0.00274
Rivi 112: Rivi 113:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases (all ages)
| Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases
| all ages
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 2416
| 2416
| … per 100000 (Default Europe)
| … per 100000 (Default Europe)
| WHO
| WHO
| 1.0091
| 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166)
| 1.0017
| 1.0166
| 0.58800
| 0.58800
| 0.03800
| 0.03800
Rivi 129: Rivi 129:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases (all ages)
| Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases
| all ages
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1407
| 1407
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 1848)
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 1848)
| WHO
| WHO
| 1.0190
| 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402)
| 0.9982
| 1.0402
| 0.40800
| 0.40800
| 0.03800
| 0.03800
Rivi 146: Rivi 145:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days) (all ages)
| Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days)
| all ages
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 1
| 1
| 19
| 19
| … days per person per year (Default Europe: 19)
| … days per person per year (Default Europe: 19)
| HRAPIE: Ostro et al., 1989
| HRAPIE: Ostro et al., 1989
| 1.0470
| 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)
| 1.0420
| 1.0530
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 163: Rivi 161:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Work days lost, working age population (age 20-65 years)
| Work days lost, working age population
| age 20-65 a
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 1
| 1
| 12
| 12
| … days per worker per year (No Default Value)
| … days per worker per year (No Default Value)
| WHO
| WHO
| 1.0460
| 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530)
| 1.0390
| 1.0530
| 0.09900
| 0.09900
| 0.00274
| 0.00274
Rivi 180: Rivi 177:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Lung cancer (age 30+ years)
| Lung cancer
| age 30+ a
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 64
| 64
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 49)
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 49)
| WHO
| WHO
| 1.0900
| 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400)
| 1.0400
| 1.1400
| 0.45100
| 0.45100
| 1.00000
| 1.00000
Rivi 197: Rivi 193:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term) (age 0 years)
| Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term)
| 0 a
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 7100
| 7100
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 6700)  
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 6700)  
| WHO
| WHO
| 1.1900
| 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)
| 1.0000
| 1.4200
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 214: Rivi 209:
|  
|  
|----
|----
|
| Decreased lung function (FEV1) in percentage (per 10 µg/m³)
|
| 6-12 a
|
|
|
|
|
| Decline FEV1 PM2,5 (per 10 µg/m³)
| Lower
| Upper
|
|
|
|
|
|
|----
| Decreased lung function (FEV1) (age 6-12 years) in percentage. Linear DR
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| linear
|  
|  
|  
|  
| 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2,5
| 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2.5
| does not apply
| does not apply
| 1.5%
| 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)
| -0.3%
| 3.2%
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 248: Rivi 225:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Mortality
| colspan="15!| Mortality
|
| loglinear DR
|
| Incidence/prevalence
| Explanation and default value incidence/prevalence
| Source incidence/prevalence
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|----
|----
| Post-neonatal mortality (age 1-12 months = age 0 years *11/12)
| Post-neonatal mortality
| 1-12 months = age 0 a*11/12
| PM10
| PM10
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 300
| 300
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 300)
| … per 100000 (Default Europe: 300)
| WHO
| WHO
| 1.040
| 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070)
| 1.020
| 1.070
| 1
| 1
| 80
| 80
Rivi 282: Rivi 243:
| Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.  
| Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.  
|----
|----
| Premature deaths due to PM10 (age 30+ years)
| YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10
| 30+ a
| PM10
| PM10
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.83537959465
| … per 100000  
| … per 100000  
| attributable cases * 10.6
|  
| 1.035
| 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)
| 1.004
| 1.066
| 1
| 1
| 10.6
| 10.6
Rivi 299: Rivi 259:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Premature deaths due to PM2.5 (age 30+ years)
| YLL (premature deaths) due to PM2.5
| 30+ a
| PM2.5
| PM2.5
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.83537959465
| … per 100000  
| … per 100000  
| attributable cases * 10.6
|  
| 1.062
| 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)
| 1.041
| 1.084
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 316: Rivi 275:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Premature deaths due to NO2 (age 30+ years)
| YLL (premature deaths) due to NO2
| 30+ a
| NO2
| NO2
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.83537959465
| … per 100000  
| … per 100000  
| attributable cases * 10.6
|  
| 1.020
| 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)
| 1.010
| 1.030
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 333: Rivi 291:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Premature deaths due to EC (age 30+ years)
| YLL (premature deaths) due to EC
| 30+ a
| EC
| EC
| loglinear DR
| RR
| 100000
| 100000
| 1363.83537959465
| 1363.83537959465
| … per 100000  
| … per 100000  
| attributable cases * 10.6
|  
| 1.061
| 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)
| 1.049
| 1.073
|  
|  
|  
|  
Rivi 350: Rivi 307:
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) (age 30+ years) in days
| colspan="11"| Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days
| Decline in life expectancy (d)
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|----
| Due to PM10
| 30+ a
| PM10
| linear DR
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
| 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)
|  
|  
|  
|  
| Decline in life expectancy in days
| 120 (14 - 223)
| Lower
| Hoek et al., 2013
| Upper
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Due to PM10 (age 30+ years)
| Due to PM2.5
| PM10
| 30+ a
| PM2.5
| linear DR
| linear DR
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
|  
| (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d)
| 1.035
| 1.004
| 1.066
| 120
| 14
| 223
| Hoek et al., 2013
|  
|  
| 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)
|  
|  
|----
| Due to PM2,5 (age 30+ years)
| PM2,5
| linear DR
|  
|  
|  
| 210 (140 - 281)
|
| (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d)
| 1.062
| 1.041
| 1.084
| 210
| 140
| 281
| Hoek et al., 2013
| Hoek et al., 2013
|  
|  
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Due to NO2 (age 30+ years)
| Due to NO2
| 30+ a
| NO2
| NO2
| linear DR
| linear DR
Rivi 407: Rivi 352:
|  
|  
|  
|  
| (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d)
|  
| 1.020
| 1.020v(1.010 - 1.030)
| 1.010
|  
| 1.030
|  
| 69
| 69 (35 - 103)
| 35
| 103
| Atkinson et al., 2018
| Atkinson et al., 2018
|  
|  
|  
|  
|----
|----
| Due to EC (age 30+ years)
| Due to EC
| 30+ a
| EC
| EC
| linear DR
| linear DR
Rivi 424: Rivi 368:
|  
|  
|  
|  
| (exposure – cutoff)* decline in life exposure (d) MIKSI EI JAETA 10 KUTEN MUUT?
|  
| 1.061
| 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)
| 1.049
|  
| 1.073
|  
| 206
| 206 (167 - 246)
| 167
| 246
| Hoek et al., 2013
| Hoek et al., 2013
|  
|  

Versio 6. joulukuuta 2020 kello 10.05




Kiltova on Syken koordinoima projekti, joka tuottaa toiminnallisuuksia ilmastotoimenpiteiden vaikutusten arviointiin. Päähuomio on muissa kuin suorissa ilmastovaikutuksissa, esimerkiksi ilmansaasteissa, talousvaikutuksissa jne.

Malleja

PAQ2018

Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [1]

User inputs:

  • Total number of citizens in region of interest
  • Age distribution by one-year age groups
  • Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3
    • PM10
    • PM2.5
    • NO2
    • EC
Olennaiset laskentafunktiot
!Variable Equation
Population at risk Standard population age group / total standard population * total target population
Magnitude total Burden of Disease Population * incidence or prevalence / scaling factor
Attributable cases/burden of disease BoD*(RR-1)/RR
RR ∆ exposure exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff))
YLD (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit
Costs (attributable cases or BoD) * cost per unit (€)
Percentage decline FEV1 decline fev1/10*(exposure-cutoff)
Total YLD / costs. Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1
YLL attributable cases * disability weight (1) * duration (10.6 a)
Total DALYs / health damage in € YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2
Decline in life expectancy (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) (MIKSI EI JAETA 10 jos EC?)
Olennaiset parametrit
Response Age Exposure agent ERF Scaling factor Incidence or prevalence Explanation and default value incidenceor prevalence Source incidence or prevalence ERF (per 10 µg/m3) Disability weight Duration YLD per unit Source Costs per unit (€) Source
Morbidity
Annual number of days with bronchitis in children 6-12 a PM10 RR 100000/14 18600 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 18600) PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012) 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190) 0.22500 0.00274 0.00062 WHO 2017a 49 Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults 18+ a PM10 RR 100000 390 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 390) HRAPIE: SAPALDIA 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189) 0.09900 10.00000 0.99000 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 62712
Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children 5-19 a PM10 RR 100000/0.17/365.25 4900 … per 100000 (Default West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500 HRAPIE 1.028 (1.006 - 1.051) 0.07000 0.00274 0.00019 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 49
Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 2416 … per 100000 (Default Europe) WHO 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166) 0.58800 0.03800 0.02230 Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017 2574
Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 1407 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 1848) WHO 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402) 0.40800 0.03800 0.01550 Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017 2574
Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days) all ages PM2.5 RR 1 19 … days per person per year (Default Europe: 19) HRAPIE: Ostro et al., 1989 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)
Work days lost, working age population age 20-65 a PM2.5 RR 1 12 … days per worker per year (No Default Value) WHO 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530) 0.09900 0.00274 0.00027 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 152
Lung cancer age 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 64 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 49) WHO 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400) 0.45100 1.00000 0.45100 WHO 2017a
Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term) 0 a PM2.5 RR 100000 7100 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 6700) WHO 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)
Decreased lung function (FEV1) in percentage (per 10 µg/m³) 6-12 a PM2.5 linear 1,5% daling per 10 µg/m³ PM2.5 does not apply 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)
Mortality
Post-neonatal mortality 1-12 months = age 0 a*11/12 PM10 RR 100000 300 … per 100000 (Default Europe: 300) WHO 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070) 1 80 80 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011 67500 Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10 30+ a PM10 RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066) 1 10.6 10.6 De Leeuw & Horálek 2016/5
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)
YLL (premature deaths) due to NO2 30+ a NO2 RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)
YLL (premature deaths) due to EC 30+ a EC RR 100000 1363.83537959465 … per 100000 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)
Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days Decline in life expectancy (d)
Due to PM10 30+ a PM10 linear DR 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066) 120 (14 - 223) Hoek et al., 2013
Due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 linear DR 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084) 210 (140 - 281) Hoek et al., 2013
Due to NO2 30+ a NO2 linear DR 1.020v(1.010 - 1.030) 69 (35 - 103) Atkinson et al., 2018
Due to EC 30+ a EC linear DR 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073) 206 (167 - 246) Hoek et al., 2013
Noudettu kohteesta ”https://fi.opasnet.org/index.php?title=Kiltova&oldid=36608”