Kiltova

Kohteesta Opasnet Suomi
Loikkaa: valikkoon, hakuun




Kiltova on Syken koordinoima projekti, joka tuottaa toiminnallisuuksia ilmastotoimenpiteiden vaikutusten arviointiin. Päähuomio on muissa kuin suorissa ilmastovaikutuksissa, esimerkiksi ilmansaasteissa, talousvaikutuksissa jne.

Malleja

PAQ2018

Partnership on air quality tuotti mallin, jonka yleiskuvaus on alla olevissa taulukoissa. Laskenta on toteutettu Excelillä. [1]. EU-komission ilmansaasteiden yleissivu on https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/air-quality. Taustatietoja mallista ja tarvittavia lähtötietoja löytyy osoitteesta https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/hfa-explorer/. WHO-datan käyttöehdot löytyvät täältä.

User inputs:

  • Total number of citizens in region of interest
  • Age distribution by one-year age groups
  • Outdoor air pollutant concentrations. All concentrations in ug/m3. The assumed cut-off values (i.e. no-effect thresholds) are shown in parenthesis.
    • PM10 (3.9)
    • PM2.5 (2.5)
    • NO2 (5.0)
    • EC (0.3)
Olennaiset laskentafunktiot
Variable Equation
Population at risk Standard population age group / total standard population * total target population
Magnitude total Burden of Disease Population * incidence or prevalence / scaling factor
Attributable cases/burden of disease BoD*(RR-1)/RR
RR ∆ exposure exp(ln(RR_per_10)/10*(exposure-cutoff))
YLD (attributable cases or bod)*YLD per unit
Costs (attributable cases or BoD) * cost per unit (€)
Percentage decline FEV1 decline fev1/10*(exposure-cutoff)
Total YLD / costs. Sum of morbidity. Does not include RAD and LBW and FEV1
YLL attributable cases * disability weight (1) * duration (10.6 a)
Total DALYs / health damage in € YLD + YLL due to PM2.5 & NO2
Decline in life expectancy (exposure – cutoff)/10* decline in life exposure (d) (MIKSI EI JAETA 10 jos EC?)
Olennaiset parametrit
Response Age Exposure agent ERF Scaling factor Incidence or prevalence Default value incidence or prevalence ERF (per 10 µg/m3) Disability weight Duration YLD per unit Costs per unit (€)
Morbidity
Annual number of days with bronchitis in children 6-12 a PM10 RR 100000/14 18600 Europe: 18600[1] 1.080 (0.980 - 1.190)[2][3] 0.22500 0.00274 0.00062[4] 49[5]
Incidence chronic bronchitis in adults 18+ a PM10 RR 100000 390 Europe: 390[6] 1.117 (1.040 - 1.189)[2][3] 0.09900 10.00000 0.99000[7] 62712[5]
Incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children 5-19 a PM10 RR 100000/0.17/365.25 4900 West Europe: 4900, North and East Europe: 3500[2] 1.028 (1.006 - 1.051)[2][3] 0.07000 0.00274 0.00019[7] 49[5]
Hospitalizations, cardiovascular diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 2416 Europe[8] 1.0091 (1.0017 - 1.0166)[2][3] 0.58800 0.03800 0.02230[9] 2574[5]
Hospitalizations, respiratory diseases all ages PM2.5 RR 100000 1407 Europe: 1848[8] 1.0190 (0.9982 - 1.0402)[2][3] 0.40800 0.03800 0.01550[9] 2574[5]
Restricted activity days (RADs) (including sick-leave, hospital emergency admission, symptom days per person per year) all ages PM2.5 RR 1 19 Europe: 19[2][10] 1.0470 (1.0420 - 1.0530)[2][3]
Work days lost per worker per year, working age population age 20-65 a PM2.5 RR 1 12 No Default Value[8] 1.0460 (1.0390 - 1.0530)[2][3] 0.09900 0.00274 0.00027[7] 152[5]
Lung cancer age 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 64 Europe: 49[8] 1.0900 (1.0400 - 1.1400)[11] 0.45100 1.00000 0.45100[4]
Low birth weight (< 2500 g at term) 0 a PM2.5 RR 100000 7100 Europe: 6700[8] 1.1900 (1.0000 - 1.4200)[11]
Decreased lung function (FEV1) in percentage (per 10 µg/m³) 6-12 a PM2.5 linear 1.5% (-0.3% - 3.2%)[11]
Mortality
Post-neonatal mortality 1-12 months = age 0 a*11/12 PM10 RR 100000 300 Europe: 300[8] 1.040 (1.020 - 1.070)[2][3] 1 80 80[7] 67500[5]
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM10 30+ a PM10 RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)[13] 1 10.6 10.6[14]
YLL (premature deaths) due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)[13]
YLL (premature deaths) due to NO2 30+ a NO2 RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)[15]
YLL (premature deaths) due to EC 30+ a EC RR 100000 1363.8[12] 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)[13]
Mortality in premature mortality (decline in life expectancy) in days Decline in life expectancy (d)
Due to PM10 30+ a PM10 linear ERF 1.035 (1.004 - 1.066)[13] 120 (14 - 223)[13]
Due to PM2.5 30+ a PM2.5 linear ERF 1.062 (1.041 - 1.084)[13] 210 (140 - 281)[13]
Due to NO2 30+ a NO2 linear ERF 1.020 (1.010 - 1.030)[15] 69 (35 - 103)[13]
Due to EC 30+ a EC linear ERF 1.061 (1.049 - 1.073)[13] 206 (167 - 246)[13]

Viitteet

  1. PATY study (Hoek et al., 2012)
  2. 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 2,8 2,9 HRAPIE
  3. 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 WHO 2013
  4. 4,0 4,1 WHO 2017a
  5. 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 Holland (2014), corrected to price levels of 2015. Amounts are based on the lower limits.
  6. HRAPIE: SAPALDIA
  7. 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 Heimtsa & Intarese 2011
  8. 8,0 8,1 8,2 8,3 8,4 8,5 WHO
  9. 9,0 9,1 Bachmann & van der Kamp 2017
  10. Ostro et al., 1989
  11. 11,0 11,1 11,2 Van der Zee et al., 2016
  12. 12,0 12,1 12,2 12,3 Value for Finland
  13. 13,0 13,1 13,2 13,3 13,4 13,5 13,6 13,7 13,8 13,9 Hoek et al., 2013
  14. De Leeuw & Horálek 2016/5
  15. 15,0 15,1 Atkinson et al., 2017